The Truth About Scientology
Source Magazine Statistics - Analysis Summary
TAS : Source Magazine Statistics - Analysis Summary
Source Magazine Analysis - Summary
As part of my ongoing project of compiling and analyzing Scientology's statistics, I am collecting statistics from Source magazine, the magazine of the Church of Scientology's Flag Service Organization in Clearwater, Florida.
The data show that Flag's stats peaked in the late 80s and have never recovered since.
The following analysis was done in September, 2004. An updated version, including complete statistics for 2004, is available at the Source 2004 Analysis page.
Note: Because some of my source material consisted of pages torn from copies of Source, it's possible that, for some earlier issues, I'm missing some data - in other words, I may have gotten two pages torn from a particular issue when there were, perhaps, three or four pages of completions. Note that this would simply amplify the results I'm reporting here - the results from the late 80s are already the highest numbers we have over the lifespan of Flag. If some of those numbers are actually higher, the discrepancy between that period and the current dropoff is even greater.
Total Completions by Year
Flag was at its most productive from 1987 to 1991.
Total completions per year:
1976 762 1977 1505 1978 2098 1979 1535 1980 1985 1981 1765 1982 2973 1983 586 1984 1985 1952 1986 4099 1987 7927 1988 6682 1989 11603 1990 6973 1991 6857 1992 5322 1993 5058 1994 4339 1995 5139 1996 6648 1997 5895 1998 6132 1999 4886 2000 3512 2001 3751 2002 5995 2003 4745 2004 4443
Individuals Completing a Service by Year
The number of individuals completing services at Flag each year shows a similar pattern - a peak in the late 80s, followed by something of a slump from 2000-2004.
Number of individuals completing a service each year:
1976 381 1977 713 1978 1175 1979 938 1980 1066 1981 1018 1982 1619 1983 442 1984 0 1985 1156 1986 2185 1987 3849 1988 3056 1989 5515 1990 3550 1991 3738 1992 2901 1993 2815 1994 2623 1995 3089 1996 3274 1997 3188 1998 3155 1999 2578 2000 1848 2001 2159 2002 3022 2003 2572 2004 2434
The above numbers are, in fact, a little on the high side, since no attempt has yet been made to account for variations or misspellings (in other words, "Mike Mouse" and "Michael Mouse" would be counted as two separate individuals, even if they were actually the same person).
Clears
Flag is not exactly cranking out Clears these days. While Flag may prefer to concentrate on expensive services like the Ls, it does seem that Scientology's headquarters should be able to show the rest of the world how to make Clears. Flag, it seems, should be setting an example. Indeed, one issue of Source leads off its completions page with the headline, "Flag makes Clears and OTs!" Flag doesn't make a whole lot of them, though, it appears.
1976 11 1977 5 1978 12 1979 364 1980 166 1981 28 1982 67 1983 24 1984 0 1985 20 1986 128 1987 176 1988 260 1989 627 1990 293 1991 281 1992 36 1993 196 1994 141 1995 115 1996 118 1997 77 1998 65 1999 87 2000 49 2001 46 2002 96 2003 55 2004 54
PTS/SP Courses
The following figures reflect PTS/SP Courses - anything labeled PTS/SP Course, PTS/SP PTS/SP DETECTION, ROUTING AND HANDLING COURSE, PTS/SP Course Part One, or PTS/SP Course Part Two.
This section is a good illustration of issues where data may be missing. While we know there were no completions of any kind reported in 1984, it seems odd that there were so few PTS/SP completions reported during the entire period from 1979-1986. It's possible that this reflects data that I am missing, rather than an actual dearth of PTS/SP completions. In any case, though, there are far fewer completions in the early 2000s than in the late 1980s.
1976 1977 66 1978 83 1979 5 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 2 1986 1987 350 1988 222 1989 531 1990 199 1991 182 1992 61 1993 82 1994 56 1995 90 1996 90 1997 137 1998 262 1999 216 2000 159 2001 210 2002 288 2003 147 2004 98
OT Eligibility
The following figures reflect OT Eligibility completions.
I had thought this was a service that individuals completed over and over again. To my surprise, I found that the 1392 total completions were ascribed to 1339 individuals - in other words, very few individuals showed up in this service more than once.
1985 25 1986 83 1987 104 1988 139 1989 227 1990 106 1991 76 1992 47 1993 64 1994 62 1995 78 1996 28 1997 23 1998 15 1999 26 2000 15 2001 38 2002 78 2003 92 2004 66
Solo Auditor Completions
The following figures reflect Solo Auditor Courses - anything labeled as any of the following:
- SOLO AUDITOR CERTAINTY COURSE
- SOLO AUDITOR COURSE, PART I
- SOLO AUDITOR COURSE, PART II
- SOLO NOTS AUDITOR CERTAINTY COURSE
- SOLO NOTS AUDITOR CERTAINTY COURSE, PART I
- SOLO NOTS AUDITOR CERTAINTY COURSE, PART II
- NEW OT VI HUBBARD SOLO NOTS AUDITING COURSE
... with or without the "Hubbard" or "New Hubbard" prefix.
Again, the low numbers in the early 80s may reflect data that I am missing, rather than an actual lack of Solo Auditor completions. Whatever the situation in the early 80s, though, it seems clear that there was a huge spike in 1997, followed by a fast decline with a small bump in 2002.
1978 8 1979 29 1980 0 1981 0 1982 0 1983 0 1984 0 1985 40 1986 157 1987 265 1988 310 1989 407 1990 227 1991 103 1992 99 1993 131 1994 104 1995 45 1996 161 1997 1705 1998 869 1999 561 2000 203 2001 212 2002 398 2003 341 2004 225
I hope to do a more thorough analysis before the end of September 2004 and to revisit these numbers in early 2005 when we have more complete numbers for 2004.
Although I'm dismayed to find that I may be missing some data from the 80s lists that I have, I think there is no question that Flag's stats are way down from the late 80s; additional data from that era will only magnify that downtrend.
Scientology is shrinking.
This page was last updated on February 17, 2005 by Kristi Wachter.