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Source Magazine Statistics - Analysis Summary

TAS : Source Magazine Statistics - Analysis Summary


Source Magazine Analysis - Summary

As part of my ongoing project of compiling and analyzing Scientology's statistics, I am collecting statistics from Source magazine, the magazine of the Church of Scientology's Flag Service Organization in Clearwater, Florida.

The data show that Flag's stats peaked in the late 80s and have never recovered since.

The following analysis was done in September, 2004. An updated version, including complete statistics for 2004, is available at the Source 2004 Analysis page.

Note: Because some of my source material consisted of pages torn from copies of Source, it's possible that, for some earlier issues, I'm missing some data - in other words, I may have gotten two pages torn from a particular issue when there were, perhaps, three or four pages of completions. Note that this would simply amplify the results I'm reporting here - the results from the late 80s are already the highest numbers we have over the lifespan of Flag. If some of those numbers are actually higher, the discrepancy between that period and the current dropoff is even greater.

Total Completions by Year

Flag was at its most productive from 1987 to 1991.

Total completions per year:

1976	762
1977	1505
1978	2098
1979	1535
1980	1985
1981	1765
1982	2973
1983	586
1984	
1985	1952
1986	4099
1987	7927
1988	6682
1989	11603
1990	6973
1991	6857
1992	5322
1993	5058
1994	4339
1995	5139
1996	6648
1997	5895
1998	6132
1999	4886
2000	3512
2001	3751
2002	5995
2003	4745
2004	4443

Individuals Completing a Service by Year

The number of individuals completing services at Flag each year shows a similar pattern - a peak in the late 80s, followed by something of a slump from 2000-2004.

Number of individuals completing a service each year:

1976	381
1977	713
1978	1175
1979	938
1980	1066
1981	1018
1982	1619
1983	442
1984	0
1985	1156
1986	2185
1987	3849
1988	3056
1989	5515
1990	3550
1991	3738
1992	2901
1993	2815
1994	2623
1995	3089
1996	3274
1997	3188
1998	3155
1999	2578
2000	1848
2001	2159
2002	3022
2003	2572
2004	2434

The above numbers are, in fact, a little on the high side, since no attempt has yet been made to account for variations or misspellings (in other words, "Mike Mouse" and "Michael Mouse" would be counted as two separate individuals, even if they were actually the same person).

Clears

Flag is not exactly cranking out Clears these days. While Flag may prefer to concentrate on expensive services like the Ls, it does seem that Scientology's headquarters should be able to show the rest of the world how to make Clears. Flag, it seems, should be setting an example. Indeed, one issue of Source leads off its completions page with the headline, "Flag makes Clears and OTs!" Flag doesn't make a whole lot of them, though, it appears.

1976	11
1977	5
1978	12
1979	364
1980	166
1981	28
1982	67
1983	24
1984	0
1985	20
1986	128
1987	176
1988	260
1989	627
1990	293
1991	281
1992	36
1993	196
1994	141
1995	115
1996	118
1997	77
1998	65
1999	87
2000	49
2001	46
2002	96
2003	55
2004	54

PTS/SP Courses

The following figures reflect PTS/SP Courses - anything labeled PTS/SP Course, PTS/SP PTS/SP DETECTION, ROUTING AND HANDLING COURSE, PTS/SP Course Part One, or PTS/SP Course Part Two.

This section is a good illustration of issues where data may be missing. While we know there were no completions of any kind reported in 1984, it seems odd that there were so few PTS/SP completions reported during the entire period from 1979-1986. It's possible that this reflects data that I am missing, rather than an actual dearth of PTS/SP completions. In any case, though, there are far fewer completions in the early 2000s than in the late 1980s.

1976	
1977	66
1978	83
1979	5
1980	
1981	
1982	
1983	
1984	
1985	2
1986	
1987	350
1988	222
1989	531
1990	199
1991	182
1992	61
1993	82
1994	56
1995	90
1996	90
1997	137
1998	262
1999	216
2000	159
2001	210
2002	288
2003	147
2004	98

OT Eligibility

The following figures reflect OT Eligibility completions.

I had thought this was a service that individuals completed over and over again. To my surprise, I found that the 1392 total completions were ascribed to 1339 individuals - in other words, very few individuals showed up in this service more than once.

1985	25
1986	83
1987	104
1988	139
1989	227
1990	106
1991	76
1992	47
1993	64
1994	62
1995	78
1996	28
1997	23
1998	15
1999	26
2000	15
2001	38
2002	78
2003	92
2004	66

Solo Auditor Completions

The following figures reflect Solo Auditor Courses - anything labeled as any of the following:

  • SOLO AUDITOR CERTAINTY COURSE
  • SOLO AUDITOR COURSE, PART I
  • SOLO AUDITOR COURSE, PART II
  • SOLO NOTS AUDITOR CERTAINTY COURSE
  • SOLO NOTS AUDITOR CERTAINTY COURSE, PART I
  • SOLO NOTS AUDITOR CERTAINTY COURSE, PART II
  • NEW OT VI HUBBARD SOLO NOTS AUDITING COURSE

... with or without the "Hubbard" or "New Hubbard" prefix.

Again, the low numbers in the early 80s may reflect data that I am missing, rather than an actual lack of Solo Auditor completions. Whatever the situation in the early 80s, though, it seems clear that there was a huge spike in 1997, followed by a fast decline with a small bump in 2002.

1978	8
1979	29
1980	0
1981	0
1982	0
1983	0
1984	0
1985	40
1986	157
1987	265
1988	310
1989	407
1990	227
1991	103
1992	99
1993	131
1994	104
1995	45
1996	161
1997	1705
1998	869
1999	561
2000	203
2001	212
2002	398
2003	341
2004	225

I hope to do a more thorough analysis before the end of September 2004 and to revisit these numbers in early 2005 when we have more complete numbers for 2004.

Although I'm dismayed to find that I may be missing some data from the 80s lists that I have, I think there is no question that Flag's stats are way down from the late 80s; additional data from that era will only magnify that downtrend.

Scientology is shrinking.


This page was last updated on February 17, 2005 by Kristi Wachter.