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Cerridwen's Analysis of Flag Stats in Source Magazine

As Cerridwen shows below, it's important to pay attention to the dates when Scientology magazines appear. What appears at first glance to be a rising statistic may turn out to be lower than the previous stat if the magazine covers a longer time period (say, three months instead of two).

Date: 17 Jul 2002 15:52:26 -0000
Message-ID: <1147TH3A37454.4530787037@anonymous.poster>
From: "Cerridwen" 
Subject: F;lag Stat Analysis June 2002
Newsgroups: alt.religion.scientology

Flag Stats- Analysis

No matter how much PR and hype exists, the hard evidence is that
Flag is not maintaining "unprecedented expansion".

When looking at these stats it is very important to note the time
span between Source Magazines and therefore the figuring of the
stats.

As you can see below the issuing of the Magazine is not consistent.

June 2001 Issue 134        572      [3 months]
Sept 2001 Issue 135       1603      [3 months]
Dec  2001 Issue 136       1368      [3 months]  
Feb 2002  Issue 137        733      [2 months]
June 2002 Issue 138       1684      [4 months]

It would appear from looking at this that Flag has bounced back and
is producing the big numbers again but you have to realize that
Issue 137 reflects only 2 months production and Issue 138 reflects 4
months production.

If we divide this up by the number of months  for an average
monthly stat, it  would look like this.

April 2001      190
May 2001        190
June 2001       190
July 2001       534
Aug 2001        534
Sept 2001       534
Oct 2001         456
Nov 2001         456
Dec 2001         456
Jan. 2002        366.
Feb 2002         366
March 2002       421
April 2002       421
May 2002         421
June 2002        421

Ok now those are just raw numbers and don't reflect what is going
on.

When looking over the stats below there are really 3 sets of stats
that a Scn Exec would see just from knowing what all these course
completions mean.

There are the Processing or Auditing  stats which would be number
of Clears, OT's and basic delivery of different Auditing Rundowns
to Paying Public.

One could even break that section down further and just look at
Clears and OT's made.

The next set of Stats would be Training stats.  This would be
Courses delivered that made auditors, supervisors, word clearer,
and Execs.

The third set of stats would be the Div. 6 or New Public in stats. 
These are usually the little courses designed to give people some
basic data about Scn.  They are usually inexpensive.  Flag never
really had much of a Div 6 because Flag doesn't really go after
brand new people.  Flag's concentration is on Scientologists already
on the Bridge.

OK So lets look at A few of these Sets of Stats

TOTAL NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS CLEAR TO OT 7 

This would include all these services.

Clear
Sunshine RD 
Solo Part I
Solo Auditor Certainty
OT Preps
Solo Auditor Part II
OT Eligibility
OT I
OT II
OT III
OT IV
OT V
OT VI SOLO NOTs Course
SOLO NOTs CERTAINTY COURSE I
SOLO NOTs CERTAINTY COURSE II
OT VII
OT VII EXPANDED

Date         Issue #      Total         Average monthly stat

Sept 2001 Issue 135       292    [3 months]   Avg.  97
Dec  2001 Issue 136       238    [3 months]   Avg.  79
Feb 2002  Issue 137       530    [2 months]   Avg.  265
June 2002 Issue 138       483    [4 months]   Avg.  121

Note:  When I type this up I have nice neat columns but for some
reason they don't hold up when sending them in via the remailer.

So you can see that Flag did have a big jump in completions for
Clears and OTs made in the early part of 2002 "The Year of the
OT" but per the stats they have not kept the trend up and are going
back down again.  This is quite interesting because the latest PR
from Church Management is all about how we must apply the
Affluence Formula.  

The management is NOT in affluence but I believe they tell the
parishioners they are in Affluence or "upstat" so as to keep the
deluded ones from seeing the actual stats.

OK now lets look at the training stats.

This set of stats is calculated by adding all auditor completions and
prerequisites to becoming an auditor (such as the student hat).
Courses range from Dianetic Auditor Course to Class IX.

Date         Issue #      Total         Average per month

Sept 2001 Issue 135       748    [3 months]   Avg.  249
Dec  2001 Issue 136       596    [3 months]   Avg.  199
Feb 2002  Issue 137       272    [2 months]   Avg.  136
June 2002 Issue 138       548    [4 months]   Avg.  137

In the training area you can see that overall the number of auditors
made is on a decline.

Now for more interesting numbers.  The numbers below  are part of
the training numbers above.

issue                           135     136     137     138

Student Hat                     89      36      13      35
Pro TR's                        141     103     24      88
Upper Indoc TR's Course         131     118     22      80
Pro Metering Course             48      100     80      56

What are all these about???

If you look at the list of names that are connected to these numbers
here you will see that most (but not all) of these names are from
outer org (mostly Class V) staff.

This is part of a training line up.  
The eequence is Student Hat, PRO TR's and Upper Indoc TR's and then 
Metering Course

Some staff will have to do the PTS/SP course first and other staff
will stay on and do further training

The point is that the majority of these stats are NOT paying public
but are outer org staff being ordered to Flag to train.  The outer orgs
do not have the money to pay for this training up front so they use
Training awards or the orgs are somehow put in debt to Flag and
have to pay weekly on the bill.  

It's not totally a false picture of Flags production because Flag is
responsible for the training of the Class V org Staff but if you did
not know this you would think that Flag has loaded its course room
with paying public, all training to be auditors and it is just not the
case.

Bottom line:  This is just a year and a half worth of stats.  It doesn't
give the long term stat scene at Flag.  A very nice person has sent
me some older Source Mags that I will be working on but I still
have many missing issues that would be needed to give an accurate
picture as to overall growth or contraction of Flag.  

Right now all I can say is the stats are overall up from where they
were a year ago but they are not maintaining that "stellar range" the
C of S is bragging about.  I do believe the stats went up because the
C of S "handled a backlog" meaning there were a bunch of Clears
and OT's off the bridge and a concerted effort was made to get
them on.  That's been done and now the are left with beating the
same people over the head to do more courses.

Time will tell.

Cerridwen
ARSCC Stats Bureau Chief

Flag Stats Issues

135     136     137     138(June 2002)

Purif Rundown   
19      9       5       12
Objective Processing
21      14      6       7
Scientology Drug Rundown
16      17      4       10
Happiness Rundown       
7       10      8       13
ARC Straightwire  Exp   
11      8       4       6
Grade O Exp     
9       3       6       9
Grade I Exp     
9       1       1       9
Grade II Exp    
6       4       2       3
Grade III Exp   
8       3       0       5
Grade IV Exp    
4       4       1       5
NED Case Completion     
2       4       3       6
Expanded Dn Comp.       
1       1       0       0
Power Processing Grade V        
3       5       2       13
Grade VA        
2       5       3       13
Grade VI        
3       0       2       2
Clear   
14      23      8       20
Sunshine RD     
41      31      11      38
Solo Part I     
28      14      11      19
Solo Auditor Certainty  
3       2       2       0
OT Preps        
34      26      12      37
Solo Auditor Part II    
20      16      9       28
OT Eligibility  
23      11      15      26
OT I    
10      8       6       30
OT II   
5       10      5       23
OT III  
8       8       3       16
OT IV   
16      8       10      30
OT V    
31      27      9       41
OT VI SOLO NOTs Course  
14      4       16      51
SOLO NOTs CERTAINTY COURSE I    
12      23      14      27
SOLO NOTs CERTAINTY COURSE II   
18      26      22      54
OT VII  
3       0       12      43
OT VII EXPANDED 
12      1       0       0
L 11    
40      31      20      43
L 10    
10      11      5       20
L 12    
6       8       6       10
FPRD Basic Form 
20      25      13      35
FPRD Ist Dynamic Form   
2       1       0       1
FPRD 2D Form    
2       3       1       3
FRRD Expanded   
0       0       0       0
FPRD  3D Form   
0       1       0       0
FPRD Staff and Exec Form        
0       1       0       0
Life Repair     
0       0       0       1
Allergy/Asthma RD       
3       0       0       3
Havingness RD   
48      30      18      28
Int by Dynamics RD      
7       5       4       7
Dymanic Sort Out        
3       6       4       6
Profession Intensive    
15      13      2       10
Fixated Person RD       
1       3       0       1
Knowledge RD    
0       1       1       0
Vital Info RD   
2       2       1       2
Fear of People RD       
2       0       0       0
Student Booster RD      
1       3       3       2
PTS RD  
        0       0       2
Int RD  
9       0       0       0
Student Rescue Int.     
1       1       1       2
End of Endless Int RD   
22      10      12      0
M 1 Word Clearing RD    
14      10      5       11
Dianetics Seminar       
8       3       1       3
Children's Communication Course 
3       0       0       3
Dynamics of Money Course        
2       0       0       1
How to be a Successful Parent Crs.      
1       0       0       0
How to use a dictionary Course  
2       0       1       1
Grammar & Communication Course  
2       3       2       5
Overcoming Ups & Downs Crs      
5       2       0       2
Success through Communication Crs       
10      5       2       1
Learning How to Learn   
3       0       0       1
Study Skills for Life   
1       0       0       3
Personal Values & Integrity Crs 
6       0       0       8
How to Improve Relationships Crs        
1       1       0       2
How to make work easier crs     
5       4       1       3
How to improve Conditions in life       
2       1       0       0
Financial Success Course        
0       0       0       3
Scientology Handbook Crs        
0       0       0       0
The Way to Happiness Crs        
0       0       0       0
Intro to Scientology Ethics Crs 
0       0       0       0
Basic Study Manual      
5       6       1       4
Dn Auditor Course       
8       1       0       3
HQS     
14      6       1       2
Student Hat     
89      36      13      35
Study Certainty Crs.    
21      13      2       22
Therapeutic TR Course   
2       0       0       5
TR's and Objectives     
2       0       2       3
Scientology DRD Auditor Crs     
11      9       3       6
Key to Life     
8       8       4       7
KTL Delivery Course     
2       6       3       2
Life Orientation Course 
5       4       3       10
LOC Delivery Course     
3       4       6       4
Pro TR's        
141     103     24      88
Pro TR's Delivery Crs   
0       0       0       0
TR's Clay Table Delivery Crs    
6       3       4       5
Method One co audit course      
0       2       0       6
Upper Indoc TR's Course 
131     118     22      80
Pro Metering Course     
48      100     80      56
Flag Only Pro Metering Crs      
16      21      22      29
Academy Level 0 
11      9       6       12
Academy Level I 
13      7       4       5
Academy Level II        
10      8       1       15
Academy Level III       
8       11      4       11
Academy Level IV        
13      9       3       12
Level 0-IV Certainty Crs        
2       0       8       0
Class IV Internship     
7       5       6       11
Class IV C/S Course     
0       2       0       1
Class IV C/S Internship 
3       0       1       1
NED Class V Auditoi Course      
6       3       0       5
Ned Class V Auditor Internship  
8       5       0       8
Class V Auditor certainty course        
0       0       1       0
Class V C/S Course      
2       0       1       2
Class V C/S Internship  
2       1       0       1
Class V Grad Auditor    
5       2       1       1
Class V Grad Certainty Crs      
1       1       1       0
Class V Grad Internship 
7       3       2       2
Class V Grad C/S course 
2       1       0       1
Class V Grad C/S Internship     
1       3       0       0
SHSBC Level A   
4       3       1       7
Level A Certainty       
0       1       1       0
Level B 
2       3       1       4
Level B Certainty       
0       0       0       0
Level C 
4       4       1       5
Level D 
4       1       3       6
Level E 
3       2       2       6
Level E certainty       
0       0       0       0
Level F 
4       2       0       6
Level F Certainty       
1       0       0       0
Level G 
2       2       3       4
Level G Certainty       
1       0       0       0
Level H 
4       1       4       2
Level H Certainty       
0       0       0       0
Level I 
4       1       3       3
Level I Certainty       
0       0       0       0
Level J 
7       1       1       5
Level J Certainty       
0       1       0       0
Level K 
8       4       0       5
Level K Certainty       
0       0       0       0
Level L 
4       3       2       4
Level L Certainty       
0       1       0       0
Level M 
4       5       0       4
Level M Certainty       
0       0       0       0
Level N 
6       2       5       5
Level O 
17      5       5       4
Level P  Class VI       
22      3       2       5
Class VI Certainty Crs  
2       1       0       0
Class VI Internship     
8       7       0       3
Class VI C/S Course     
1       6       0       3
Class VI C/S Internship 
0       2       1       3
Class VIII Course       
0       1       1       0
Class VIII Internship   
0       0       0       0
Class VIII C/S Course   
0       0       0       0
Class VIII C/S Internship       
0       0       0       0
Solo C/S Internship     
0       0       0       0
Class IX Course 8       
3       0       1
Class IX Internship     
2       1       1       0
Class IX C/S Course     
1       0       0       0
Class IX C/S Internship 
0       0       0       0
Senior Sec Checker Crs  
5       3       3       2
Senior Sec Checker Internship   
2       7       0       3
FPRD Auditor    
4       5       2       4
FPRD Internship 
4       7       0       2
FPRD C/S Course 
1       2       1       1
FPRD C/S Internship     
1       2       1       0
Pro Word Clearer Crs    
5       4       0       10
Pro Word Clearer Internship     
4       4       2       9
Pro Basic Crs Sup       
0       0       0       1
Pro Basic Crs Sup Internship    
1       0       0       0
Mini  Course Sup Courfse        
0       0       1       0
Pro Crs Sup Crs         
6       8       2       5
PCSC Internship 
5       5       4       2
Clear Certainty RD Course       
6       9       3       10
CCRD C/S Course 
1       3       2       4
Elementary Date Series Eval Crs.        
2       2       1       2
PTS/SP Course   
48      23      8       26
NEW PTS/SP COURSE       
0       106     32      90
PTS/SP Auditor Crs      
2       0       0       0
PTS/SP Auditor Crs Internship   
0       0       0       0
Purif RD I/C Crs        
3       2       1       4
Purif RD C/S Crs        
1       2       1       1
Purif RD C/s Internship 
3       2       1       1
ORGANIZATION EXECUTIVE COURSE   
0       0       0       1

OEC Volume 0    
15      2       4       6
Volume 1        
0       1       0       1
Volume 2        
1       1       0       0
Volume 3        
0       1       1       0
Volume 4        
1       3       0       2
Volume 5        
0       0       1       3
Volume 6        
0       0       0       1
Volume 7        
0       0       0       1
Minister's Course       
8       6       16      25
KSW Course      2       4       0       2
Ethics Specialist Course        
24      15      7       6
Sea Org Specialist Course       
0       0       0       0
Happiness RD Auditor Crs        
10      10      6       3
EST Repair Auditor Crs  
0       0       0       0
Psych Treatment Repair Auditor Crs      
0       0       0       0
Handling Fear of People Aud. Crs        
0       0       0       0
Allergy/Asthma RD Auditor Crs   
0       0       0       0
Student Booster RD Auditor Crs  
0       0       0       0
PDH Detection and Handling Crs  
0       0       0       0
Staff Status I  
3       1       0       1
Staff Status II 
5       3       2       13
Exec Status I   
2       1       1       1
Pro Product Debug Course        
2       1       0       4
AO Review Auditor Crs   
5       3       1       0
Cramming Officer Course 
0       0       0       1
Cramming Officer Internship     
0       0       0       1
Basic Art Course        
1       0       0       0
Dissemination Course    
2       0       0       0
Co audit Sup Course     
0       1       0       0
Special Crs in Human Eval       
1       1       1       1
Ext.and the Phenomena of Space Crs      
2       0       0       0
Doctorate for OT's      
1       4       6       7
Pro Reg Course  
1       0       0       2
Marriage Counselor Auditor      
1       0       0       0
Dir of Tech Services Mini Hat   
3       0       0       0
Staff Section Off. Mini Hat     
1       5       0       0
Chaplain Mini Hat       
0       5       0       0
Ethics Officer Mini Hat 
0       7       0       0
Dir I & R full hat      
0       0       1       0
Course Sup Full Hat     
0       0       1       0
Dir of Processing Mini Hat      
0       1       0       0
Dir of Validity Mini Hat        
0       0       1       0
Executive Director MiniHat      
0       0       0       1
Org Officer Mini Hat    
0       1       0       0
Group Auditor Course    
0       4       0       2
Scientology Handbook Crs.       
0       1       0       0
Volunteer Minister Course       
0       4       38      62
Hubbard Consultant      
0       0       0       1

Totals  1603    1368    733     1684