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Celebrity Magazine Statistics - Preliminary Analysis

TAS : Celebrity Magazine Statistics - Preliminary Analysis


Celebrity Magazine - Preliminary Analysis

Despite my earlier predictions, CC INT (Celebrity Centre International) 
stats appear to be up.

However, new members don't stick around very long.




OVERVIEW
========

Now that I have about 40-50% of the Celebrity magazine completion lists in 
my database, I thought I'd do a PRELIMINARY analysis of the data.

Here are the questions I was trying to answer:

Are CC's stats going up or down?
How long do new members stay involved?
How many services do new members take?
How long does it take to go Clear?
How long does it take to go OT?


Here are my EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY conclusions:

* Are CC's stats going up or down?

They're going up. Or, at least they're showing more completions than in 
the late 90s.

* How long do new members stay involved?

Only about 20% stay involved for 3 years or more.

* How many services do new members take?

About 60% only take one service. Only about 15-20% take more than 3 
services.

* How long does it take to attest to Clear?

It varies widely, but for some people it can be done in less than 2 years. 
On average, it appears to take about 5 years.

* How long does it take to go OT?

Again, it varies widely, but it appears to take about 7-8 years, on 
average.


ABOUT "SERVICES"
================

Within Scientology, the word "services" is often used to mean only 
auditing-type actions, as opposed to courses. I HAVE USED "SERVICES" TO 
MEAN ANY KIND OF COMPLETION. Anything that appears in a completion list is 
called "services" in this analysis.

Anyone who would like to suggest a better word is welcome to do so.



ABOUT THE DATA
==============


With much help from Cerridwen, I have incorporated completions lists from 
86 issues of Celebrity into my database, HORTON (Holder Of Records, 
Tallier of Numbers).

There's a LOT of data missing - there may be as many as 120 more issues of 
Celebrity with comp lists that I'll want to add to the database 
eventually. However, I think some preliminary analysis can reveal some 
potentially useful information.

NOTE that while I think this information is sufficiently well supported to 
be worth discussing, it's very important to remember that it will need to 
be reviewed and revised as soon as we have more data. In the meantime, it 
should all be treated as PRELIMINARY and PROVISIONAL.

It's possible, of course, that my conclusions are severely distorted by 
the missing data. However, I don't think so. In order to get an idea of 
how distorted the conclusions might be, I analyzed a subset of the data. 
The Recent Subset includes all data for people whose earliest appearance 
in HORTON is between 10/1/2000 and 12/31/2002. Since HORTON has all 
completions lists published in Celebrity from 10/1/2000 onward, analyzing 
this subset of people prevents problems caused by missing data (that is, 
we have all the data for them). I chose not to include people whose first 
completion appeared after 1/1/2003, since they may have been involved in 
Scientology for too short of a time to draw solid conclusions. (In other 
words, it may appear that an exceptionally high number of them have only 
taken one service, but that may change as we get the next two or three 
completion lists.)


I worked with three datasets:

1. The Celebrity dataset simply includes all completions listed in the 86 
issues of Celebrity I currently have in HORTON.

2. The Celebrity Plus dataset includes all completions from any source for 
any individual who appeared on a Celebrity Magazine completion list that's 
in HORTON. Thus, one individual may have done an art course at CC INT, 
auditor courses at Flag, and the Key to Life course on the Freewinds; all 
of those completions are included in the Celebrity Plus dataset, since 
that individual has at least one CC INT completion. The Celebrity Plus 
dataset lets me analyze continuing involvement in Scientology even as it 
extends beyond the services offered at CC INT.

It contains tens of thousands of records:

38,970   Celebrity
 2,472   Advance
   644   Auditor
 2,860   Freewinds
 3,153   Source
    25   other (Ability, Advance UK, Auditor UK)

3. The Recent Subset includes only people whose first completion appears 
in a Celebrity magazine mailed out between 10/1/2000 and 12/31/2002, but 
it includes ALL completions HORTON has for those individuals, including 
those published in Advance, Auditor, Freewinds, and Source. It is a subset 
of the Celebrity Plus dataset designed to let me examine records with 
fewer gaps in the data, since I have fairly complete data for Celebrity, 
Source, Freewinds, and Advance from 10/1/2000 through the present.

The Recent Subset includes 2977 individuals, who have done 5928 services.



ABOUT CELEBRITY CENTRE INTERNATIONAL
====================================

CC INT is posh and plush. Per policy, it caters to celebrities and opinion 
leaders - thus, not just actors and musicians, but also upper class 
professionals, including doctors, chiropractors, veterinarians, dentists, 
and businesspeople.

The classy atmosphere of CC INT stands in stark contrast to many other 
orgs, which often have a hard time keeping up a neat, prosperous-looking 
appearance.

While CC INT is primarily a starting place for new Scientologists, some 
Scientologists get their start in Scientology elsewhere - whether at a 
regional org or someplace like Flag - and then may take services at CC INT 
when visiting LA or after moving to the LA area.

In general, Scientologists taking services at CC INT are considered more 
important to Scientology than those at other orgs. It follows, then, that 
their members should accomplish the most in Scientology and should be 
among the most enthusiastic, long-term supporters of Scientology.

I feel comfortable concluding that, if 80% of new people at CC INT drift 
away within 2 years, the number is at least as high at other Scientology 
orgs and missions. It seems highly likely to me that CC INT is 
Scientology's most productive, most welcoming US org, and I believe that 
long-term numbers for other Scientology orgs are worse.


ABOUT CELEBRITY MAGAZINE
========================

Of all the major magazines I've looked at so far, Celebrity is the least 
consistent in terms of numbering and including completions lists.

Per policy, org magazines are supposed to come out every month in 
alternating Major and Minor issues. Major issues are supposed to include 
completions lists, and are supposed to be mailed to people who have done a 
service or at least bought a book; Minors are not supposed to include 
completions lists, and are to go to everyone on the mailing list, even 
people who haven't spent any money on Scn.

Thus, a list of magazines for a year might look like this:

Issue  Type   Month

1      Major  January
2      Minor  February
3      Major  March
4      Minor  April
5      Major  May
6      Minor  June
7      Major  July
8      Minor  August
9      Major  September
10     Minor  October
11     Major  November
12     Minor  December


However, Celebrity has diverged from this policy for the start.

For the first several years, there was a Major and a Minor issue for each 
number:

1972

1 Major
1 Minor
2 Major
2 Minor
3 Major
3 Minor
4 Major
4 Minor
5 Major
5 Minor
6 Major

1973

6 Minor
  special issue
7 Major
7 Minor
8 Major
8 Minor
9 Major
9 Minor
10 Major
10 Minor

1974

11 Major
11 Minor
11 Major
12 Minor
13 Major
14 Major
14 Minor

This lasted through 1978. At least one or two Minor issues included 
completions.

From 1979 through mid-1986, most issues had no issue numbers at all. There 
are instances of several consecutive issues having completions, as well as 
several consecutive issues having no completions.

Starting in 1986, numbering began again, starting with 200. (There had 
only been 110 issues prior to #200.) Subsequent issues did not always bear 
a Major or Minor tag, but in general, alternating issues had completions 
lists.

Since 1987, they've published an average of 9 issues a year, managing 
anywhere from 6 to 11 in any given year.


HOW MANY COMPLETIONS? HOW MANY INDIVIDUALS?
===========================================

ANSWER: 38970 completions / 18459 individuals


I used the Celebrity dataset for these two questions.

In these 86 issues of Celebrity magazine, I found

38,970 total completions

       by

18,459 total individuals

I found

427 duplicates and
325 retreads (110 of those were more than one year but less than 2 years 
apart)


This is a pretty low number of duplicates, compared with other magazines.


On the other hand, variant spellings are abundant, so all the counts of 
individuals are on the high side. (That is, there are lots of people with 
misspelled names, which inflated the overall counts.)


IS CC UPSTAT OR DOWNSTAT? ARE THEY GROWING OR SHRINKING?
========================================================

PRELIMINARY ANSWER: CC INT is upstat and growing.


I used the Celebrity dataset for these questions.


Completions Are Up
------------------

The missing data makes this question hard to answer definitively. However, 
from the data we have, it seems clear that CC INT has had more completions 
per year over the past few years than at any time in the past.

Total completions for the most recent years:

2001   2002   2003

2630   3217   2878


While some years in the early 90s had completion tallies in the low 2000s, 
most years appear to have had much lower yearly tallies.


Individuals Are Up, But Not Highest Ever
----------------------------------------


On the other hand, looking at individuals completing services at CC INT by 
year, I discovered that the early 90s had higher counts than recent years:


1993   1994   1995   1996   1997                 2001   2002   2003

1753   2004   2221   1173   1951                 1765   2166   1882


REMEMBER, THIS IS INCOMPLETE DATA!


Still, while we may have more completions happening during each of the 
past few years, they're being done by a smaller number of individuals than 
during the early 90s.


Of course, it won't be possible to be sure about long-term trends until 
the dataset is more complete.


From my observations of the VERY sparse data I have from individual orgs, 
I believe any uptrend at CC INT is a big anomaly. I think most orgs have 
drastically lower annual completion tallies than they had 20 years ago. 
While CC INT appears to be booming, I believe most US orgs are seriously 
downstat.


DO NEW MEMBERS STAY INVOLVED?
=============================

PRELIMINARY ANSWER: 80% become inactive within 2 years.


This is the question I most wanted to answer.

Most of the data I've analyzed in the past has come from advanced orgs - 
AOLA, Flag, and the Freewinds. While this data has been most informative, 
it doesn't tell us much about new members. Introductory services are 
occasionally delivered on the Freewinds and at Flag, but they're far more 
common at CC INT.

MY CONCLUSION?

About 60% only do 1 service, and less than 20% do 4 or more services.


Here's how I arrived at those conclusions.


I used the Celebrity Plus dataset and the Recent Subset for these 
questions.




Number of Services
------------------

PRELIMINARY ANSWER: About 60% of people only do 1 service.


Out of:

18,459 individuals in my Celebrity lists so far,

11,642 individuals only have a single completion at CC INT;
10,727 only did one service if I look at all completions in HORTON.

(So, 915 people did at least one additional service somewhere else.)

10,727 is 58.11% of 18,459.

How many services has each individual done?

1           10727       58.1 %
2           2670        14.5 %
3           1459        7.9 %
4           894         4.8 %
5           589         3.2 %
6           452         2.4 %
7           332         1.8 %
8           262         1.4 %
9           211         1.1 %
10          189         1.0 %

more than 10:

            675         3.7 %



The Recent Subset (first appearance is between 10/1/00 - 12/31/02) shows a 
similar pattern.

Out of 2977 individuals, how many services has each person done?

1           1876        63.0 %
2           449         15.1 %
3           244         8.2 %
4           145         4.9 %
5           83          2.8 %
6           75          2.5 %
7           35          1.2 %
8           24          0.8 %
9           12          0.4 %
10          9           0.3 %


more than 10:

            25         0.8 %

So it seems safe to say that about 60% only do a single service, and less 
than 20% do 4 or more services.



Length of Involvement
---------------------

PRELIMINARY ANSWER: 80% become inactive within 2 years.


Perhaps more instructive than number of services taken is a look at how 
long each individual continues taking services.


Taking the earliest completion for each individual and the latest, I 
calculated how long each person has remained involved.

Years       People      Percent

0           13293       72.0 %
1           997         5.4 %
2           676         3.7 %
3           454         2.5 %
4           355         1.9 %
5           267         1.4 %
6           303         1.6 %
7           259         1.4 %

8 or more years:

            1856        10.0 %

Thus, 80% are only involved for about 2 years, and only 10% remain after 7 
years.


A similar trend appears in the Recent Subset:

Months      People      Percent

1           2190        73.56 %
2-12        419         14.07 %
13-24       258         8.67 %
25-36       110         3.69 %

In this subset, only 15% continue their involvement after 12 months.

Note that this subset, the Recent Subset, includes only people whose first 
completion appears in a Celebrity magazine mailed out between 10/1/2000 
and 12/31/2002, but it includes ALL completions HORTON has for those 
individuals, including those published in Advance, Auditor, Freewinds, and 
Source.


CLEAR: HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE? DO CLEARS STAY INVOLVED?
======================================================

I used the Celebrity Plus dataset to answer these questions.


How Long Does Clear Take?
-------------------------

PRELIMINARY ANSWER: About 5 years, on average

It's extremely hard to tell how long it takes people to reach Clear. The 
answer varies widely from individual to individual. In addition, I don't 
always have the earliest completions for these individuals. I made no 
effort to limit the analysis to people for whom I had an introductory 
service; I simply included anyone from the Celebrity Plus dataset who had 
a Clear attest listed. (Note that this may have excluded some people who 
ARE Clear but whose Clear attest hasn't made it into my database yet. For 
example, Al Phlips appears in HORTON twice: How to Achieve Your Goals in 
1989, and OT III in 1994. I didn't count him as a Clear, though, because I 
don't have his Clear attest completion yet.)

Also, it's important to remember that this measures how long CC INT 
Scientologists take to reach Clear. It may be a very different, perhaps 
much longer, trip up the Bridge for Scientologists at other orgs. CC INT 
members, who may be wealthier, more motivated, and more highly encouraged, 
may reach Clear faster than less wealthy individuals or staff members at 
regional orgs.


The Celebrity Plus dataset has 863 Clear attests. 646 of these were listed 
in Celebrity; the others were listed in Advance, Auditor, or Source.

On average, it appears to take about 5 years. However, the missing data 
may be distorting this considerably.

I took a cursory look at individual completion lists. I found at least a 
few cases where people seemed to reach Clear within a year or two of doing 
an introductory service.

There were a few extremely high numbers - 20, 22, and 23 years. It appears 
that some of these are reattests for people who have attested to Clear 
before. However, it appears that some Scientologists do take more than 10 
years to reach Clear. I believe Lisa McPherson took about 18 years to 
attest to Clear.


How Many Scientologists Reach Clear?
------------------------------------

PRELIMINARY ANSWER: About 5-10%

While it's impossible to answer this question without more complete data, 
it's worth noting that 863 Clears amounts to less than 5% (just 4.68%) of 
the total of 18,459 individuals. Even if we find that as many as 10% of 
Scientologists reach Clear once we fill in the missing data, it's a pretty 
small percentage.


Do Clears Stay Involved?
------------------------

PRELIMINARY ANSWER: 65% become inactive within 1 year after going Clear.

Note that, since my completions for advanced orgs are so much more 
complete than my completions for Celebrity, this number is probably more 
reliable than many of the others in this preliminary analysis.

For each CC INT individual for whom I had a Clear attest listed, I looked 
for the most recent completion of any kind in HORTON and calculated the 
number of years between the Clear attest and that most recent comp.

Years       People      Percent

0           511         59.21 %
1           65          7.53 %
2           38          4.40 %
3           30          3.47 %
4           18          2.08 %
5           17          1.96 %
6           16          1.85 %
7           25          2.89 %

>7          143         16.57%


So about 60% of Clears become inactive immediately after attesting to 
Clear, and only about 25% of Clears remain active 3 years afterwards.


Looking at all 863 Clear attests, HORTON shows that the average length of 
involvement after attesting is about 3 years, with those who remain for a 
long time being averaged out by those who immediately become inactive.


OT: HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE? DO OTS STAY INVOLVED?
================================================

I used the Celebrity Plus dataset to answer these questions.


How Long Does OT Take?
-------------------------

PRELIMINARY ANSWER: About 7-8 years, on average



HORTON lists 760 CC INT people who have done OT levels. (Some of these 
DON'T show up as Clears, so it's not a direct subset of the 863 Clears.)


To answer this question, I calculated the difference between the earliest 
completion I had for a person and the earliest OT attest I showed. HORTON 
showed that the average time between these dates was about 8 years.



Do OTs Stay Involved?
------------------------

PRELIMINARY ANSWER: About 35% become inactive within 2 years after their 
first OT attest.

Note that, since my completions for advanced orgs are so much more 
complete than my completions for Celebrity, this number is probably more 
reliable than many of the others in this preliminary analysis.

For each CC INT individual for whom I had an OT attest listed WHICH FELL 
BEFORE 1/1/2002, I looked for the most recent completion of any kind in 
HORTON and calculated the number of years between the earliest OT attest 
and that most recent comp. I omitted those whose first OT attest fell 
after 1/1/2002 because those people may not have had time to complete 
their next OT level in the past two years.

Years       People      Percent

0           98          17.01 %
1           58          10.07 %
2           41          7.11 %
3           34          5.90 %
4           32          5.55 %
5           32          5.55 %
6           28          4.86 %
7           22          3.81 %
8           30          5.20 %

>8          201         34.90%

Almost 35% of OTs become inactive within 2 years after their first OT 
attest. Another 5% become inactive with each subsequent year.


HOW MANY CC INT SCIENTOLOGISTS ARE NEW?
=======================================

PRELIMINARY ANSWER: around 65-70% during the past few years, down from 
75-80%.

I am least certain of these numbers; it will be especially important to 
re-run them and double-check them when I get more complete data.

However, at the moment, it appears that only about 65-70% of individuals 
taking services at CC INT during 2001-2003 are newcomers there; in the 
past, that ratio was more like 75-80%.



LOOKING AHEAD
=============

CC INT has reported about 4300 newcomers completing services since 
1/1/2000. Of these 4300 individuals, if the APPARENT trends in this 
PRELIMINARY report hold,

about 860 (20%) will be active in 2 years ( ... which means some of them 
have probably become inactive already)

about 430 (10%) will be active after 7 years

about 215-430 (5-10%) will eventually attest to Clear


Approximately 400 new Clears from a period of 4 years isn't a whole lot.


I'm looking forward to following these trends over the next several years 
and looking for new trends.




Your comments, corrections, and feedback are, as always, welcome. Oh, and 
whatnot! Don't forget the whatnot.


ARSCC(wdne) Stats Wrangler, Fully Hatted,


Kristi

 

This page was last updated on January 14, 2004 by Kristi Wachter.