The Truth About Scientology
Advance Magazine - Preliminary Analysis
TAS : Advance Magazine - Preliminary Analysis
In 2002, I did a preliminary analysis of the available completions statistics from Advance! Magazine. The results are below.
The Advance Stats Analysis page has a more complete analysis. It includes all completions that have appeared in Advance from 1994, when Advance started printing them, through the middle of 2003, when I did the analysis.
Many, many people have contributed to the statistics project by sending in tallies, completions lists, or old magazines. The contribution page tells more about how you can help. I thank all those who have contributed so far!
Preliminary Stats Analysis - Advance! Magazine
From the completions lists posted from Advance! Magazine, we can see that little real expansion has taken place in the last three years. A boom in OT Eligibility completions in the middle of 2001 has fizzled out.
Advance! 159 came out in July 2002; I haven't added it to the analysis yet, but some discussion of its stats took place on the alt.religion.scientology newsgroup.
Throughout this page, you can see the complete data by clicking the link for each issue. If you have suggestions for better subsets of data to present or better ways to present the data, please let me know.
Tallies for Clear, OT, and other high-profile services:
| 142 | 143 | 144 | 152 | 153 | 154 | 155 | 156 | 157 | 158 | TOTAL | |
| 142 | 143 | 144 | 152 | 153 | 154 | 155 | 156 | 157 | 158 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NEW) OT I | 5 | 15 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 30 | 32 | 50 | 46 | 229 |
| (NEW) OT II | 9 | 6 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 23 | 19 | 36 | 56 | 198 |
| (NEW) OT III | 17 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 17 | 19 | 16 | 28 | 40 | 169 |
| (NEW) OT IV | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 26 | 113 |
| (NEW) OT V | 8 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 104 |
| CLEAR | 7 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 74 |
| OT DOCTORATE COURSE | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 28 |
| OT ELIGIBILITY | 14 | 31 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 31 | 64 | 32 | 21 | 34 | 263 |
| OT PREPARATIONS/SOLO SET UPS | 6 | 13 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 25 | 13 | 20 | 12 | 0 | 143 |
| R6EW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| SUNSHINE RUNDOWN | 7 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 77 |
| TOTAL | 82 | 98 | 112 | 87 | 74 | 154 | 195 | 173 | 203 | 239 | 1417 |
An excellent post to alt.religion.scientology (also on Google) by Cerridwen shows that the statistics can be misleading, since the issues do not come out on a regular basis. Source 138, the June 2002 issue, included four months of completions, while issue 137 had only covered two months. While four months of Clear attests may seem higher than two months, once you average the numbers over the reporting period, the picture can change.
Reconfiguring the data to show averages for each month gives a more accurate picture of completions over time. So, for a two-month interval between issues, I divided each completion tally by two; for a three-month interval, I divided by three.
Tallies from 142-144 (July-October 1999), averaged by month:
| 142 | 143 | 144 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/99 | 8/99 | 9/99 | 10/99 | |
| CLEAR | 7 | 5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| SUNSHINE RUNDOWN | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| OT PREPARATIONS/SOLO SET UPS | 6 | 13 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| OT ELIGIBILITY | 14 | 31 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| (NEW) OT I | 5 | 15 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| (NEW) OT II | 9 | 6 | 8 | 8 |
| (NEW) OT III | 17 | 8 | 3 | 3 |
| (NEW) OT IV | 8 | 8 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| (NEW) OT V | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| R6EW | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| OT DOCTORATE COURSE | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| TOTAL | 82 | 98 | 56 | 56 |
Tallies from 152-158 (January 2001-February 2002), averaged by month:
| 152 | 153 | 154 | 155 | 156 | 157 | 158 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/01 | 2/01 | 3/01 | 4/01 | 5/01 | 6/01 | 7/01 | 8/01 | 9/01 | 10/01 | 11/01 | 12/01 | 1/02 | 2/02 | 3/02 | 4/02 | |
| CLEAR | 3 | 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| SUNSHINE RUNDOWN | 3 | 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| OT PREPARATIONS/SOLO SET UPS | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9 | 9 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OT ELIGIBILITY | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5 | 5 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 32 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 |
| (NEW) OT I | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 25 | 25 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 |
| (NEW) OT II | 4 | 4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 18 | 18 | 18. | 18. | 18. |
| (NEW) OT III | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 |
| (NEW) OT IV | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 7 | 7 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| (NEW) OT V | 4 | 4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 9 | 9 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| R6EW | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| OT DOCTORATE COURSE | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TOTAL | 43.5 | 43.5 | 37 | 37 | 51.3 | 51.3 | 51.3 | 97.5 | 97.5 | 86.5 | 86.5 | 101.5 | 101.5 | 79 | 79 | 79 |
Chart for both periods (minus the missing months)
This page was last updated on September 15, 2003 by Kristi Wachter.