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Advance Magazine - Preliminary Analysis

TAS : Advance Magazine - Preliminary Analysis


In 2002, I did a preliminary analysis of the available completions statistics from Advance! Magazine. The results are below.

The Advance Stats Analysis page has a more complete analysis. It includes all completions that have appeared in Advance from 1994, when Advance started printing them, through the middle of 2003, when I did the analysis.

Many, many people have contributed to the statistics project by sending in tallies, completions lists, or old magazines. The contribution page tells more about how you can help. I thank all those who have contributed so far!


Preliminary Stats Analysis - Advance! Magazine

From the completions lists posted from Advance! Magazine, we can see that little real expansion has taken place in the last three years. A boom in OT Eligibility completions in the middle of 2001 has fizzled out.

Advance! 159 came out in July 2002; I haven't added it to the analysis yet, but some discussion of its stats took place on the alt.religion.scientology newsgroup.

Throughout this page, you can see the complete data by clicking the link for each issue. If you have suggestions for better subsets of data to present or better ways to present the data, please let me know.

Tallies for Clear, OT, and other high-profile services:

142143144152153154155156157158TOTAL
142 143 144 152 153 154 155 156 157 158
(NEW) OT I51519961730325046229
(NEW) OT II96168111423193656198
(NEW) OT III1786991719162840169
(NEW) OT IV88773161491526113
(NEW) OT V8488998151817104
CLEAR75963771210874
OT DOCTORATE COURSE1115110522028
OT ELIGIBILITY1431179103164322134263
OT PREPARATIONS/SOLO SET UPS613171918251320120143
R6EW022111521419
SUNSHINE RUNDOWN751063771410877
TOTAL829811287741541951732032391417

An excellent post to alt.religion.scientology (also on Google) by Cerridwen shows that the statistics can be misleading, since the issues do not come out on a regular basis. Source 138, the June 2002 issue, included four months of completions, while issue 137 had only covered two months. While four months of Clear attests may seem higher than two months, once you average the numbers over the reporting period, the picture can change.

Reconfiguring the data to show averages for each month gives a more accurate picture of completions over time. So, for a two-month interval between issues, I divided each completion tally by two; for a three-month interval, I divided by three.

Tallies from 142-144 (July-October 1999), averaged by month:

142 143 144
7/998/999/9910/99
CLEAR754.54.5
SUNSHINE RUNDOWN7555
OT PREPARATIONS/SOLO SET UPS6138.58.5
OT ELIGIBILITY14318.58.5
(NEW) OT I5159.59.5
(NEW) OT II9688
(NEW) OT III17833
(NEW) OT IV883.53.5
(NEW) OT V8444
R6EW0211
OT DOCTORATE COURSE110.50.5
TOTAL82985656

Tallies from 152-158 (January 2001-February 2002), averaged by month:

152 153 154 155 156 157 158
1/012/013/014/015/016/017/018/019/0110/0111/0112/011/022/023/024/02
CLEAR331.51.52.32.32.33.53.566552.62.62.6
SUNSHINE RUNDOWN331.51.52.32.32.33.53.577552.62.62.6
OT PREPARATIONS/SOLO SET UPS9.59.5998.38.38.36.56.5101066000
OT ELIGIBILITY4.54.55510.310.310.33232161610.510.511.311.311.3
(NEW) OT I4.54.5335.65.65.615151616252515.315.315.3
(NEW) OT II445.55.54.64.64.611.511.59.59.5181818.18.18.
(NEW) OT III4.54.54.54.55.65.65.69.59.588141413.313.313.3
(NEW) OT IV3.53.51.51.55.35.35.3774.54.57.57.58.68.68.6
(NEW) OT V444.54.5333447.57.5995.65.65.6
R6EW0.50.50.50.50.30.30.32.52.5110.50.51.31.31.3
OT DOCTORATE COURSE2.52.50.50.53.33.33.32.52.51111000
TOTAL43.543.5373751.351.351.397.597.586.586.5101.5101.5797979

Chart for both periods (minus the missing months)


This page was last updated on September 15, 2003 by Kristi Wachter.