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Advance Magazine Stats Discussion - July 2003

TAS : Advance Magazine Stats Discussion - July 2003


Newsgroups: alt.religion.scientology
Subject: Advance! analysis: AOLA stats are up. Pretty much. Sort of.
From: Kristi Wachter [humanrights@racerrecords.com]
Message-ID: [3f1cc4f5@news2.lightlink.com]
Date: 22 Jul 2003 01:00:37 -0400

Okay, I know some folks here are inclined to shoot the messenger, so hang 
on a sec while I don my bulletproof vest -

Right then. Onward.

Here's some commentary on completions stats from Advance! magazine.

The highlights:

* AOLA's completion stats are UP, both recently and over the past ten 
years
* OT Preps are up, after a slump (discussed on ars); OT V completions are 
up
* Clear and Sunshine Rundown completions are up and down; so, more or less 
holding steady
* examining ALL Advance completions lists (minus 1), fewer than 3000 
individuals have been listed
* since Advance! only started listing completions in 1994, we can't tell 
how current stats compare to the boom years of the 80s

THE DATA

This analysis is based on completions lists from Advance! magazine, 
currently the magazine of AOLA (the Advanced Organization of Los Angeles), 
formerly the magazine of the Advanced Orgs (there are several worldwide). 
(There are other Advance! magazines published in other countries. These 
lists were taken from the Los Angeles version only. Where I refer to 
Advance below, please remember that I am talking only about the LA 
Advance. Other countries' Advance lists will be posted and analyzed as I 
get them.)

I'm missing issue 141, so we have no completions lists from that one yet. 
I'll be happy to include it when I get it; if anyone can send me the 
magazine or the data, I'd be very grateful. Based on the stats from issues 
135-145, I suspect it lists 100-150 completions, and would probably not 
affect any of the following conclusions greatly. Of course, if I'm wrong, 
I'll be happy to update the analysis when I get the data.

With the exception of issue 141, I have posted completions lists from 
every issue of Advance! that had them.

The raw data is available here:

http://www.truthaboutscientology.com/stats/advance/

Advance! magazine has been published since the early 1970s. However, 
completion lists did not start appearing until issue 121, published in 
1994. Issue 123 does not list completions.

The lack of completions lists from the 1970s and 1980s leaves us with a 
very incomplete picture of AOLA's long-term statistics. The long-term 
tally of Flag completions from Source 
(http://www.truthaboutscientology.com/stats/source/) show that Flag 
completions peaked in the late 1980s and never recovered. This is likely 
to be true for AOLA as well; Clear attests reported in the Auditor also 
peaked in the 1980s, making it seem likely that this was a trend that held 
true for Scientology throughout the US and possibly the world.

The data is imperfect in other ways. It's unclear whether it includes 
completions by staff members; it may be inconsistent, including them 
sometimes but not other times. In addition, the data collection is rather 
sloppy - there are numerous duplicate entries, names are frequently 
misspelled, and the names of services are not always standardized. Since I 
have not removed the duplicate entries, these stats are, in fact, slightly 
inflated. In addition, some individuals are "retreading" old levels - 
people who have attested to upper OT levels are re-attesting to Clear and 
lower OT levels, and people are redoing OT Eligibility. Needless to say, 
when this happens, it does not indicate that Scientology is growing 
(although it probably represents additional income to Scientology).

On the whole, though, I believe the data gives us a much clearer picture 
of AOLA than pure speculation and guesswork. I find it most interesting to 
know that fewer than 3000 individuals have EVER been listed in Advance 
completion lists.


AOLA'S OT STATS ARE UP

The data speaks for itself here; while annual total completion tallies 
have gone up and down over the years, the total for 2002 was way up, and 
AOLA looks to be on track for another upstat year.

Total Completions by Year:

1994  1995  1996  1997  1998  1999  2000  2001  2002  2003

685   345   1014  923   724   834   733   1028  1714  1101

(2003 is, of course, only half over.)

Based on discussions I've had with Scientologists and conversations I've 
read on a.r.s., I believe OT Preps, OT III, and OT V are among the most 
important items to watch - OT V partially because it can be so expensive, 
often requiring many intensives to complete.

Here are the respective stats by year:

            1994  1995  1996  1997  1998  1999  2000  2001  2002  2003

OT PREPS    55    40    88    49    69    64    57    92    111   86
OT III      51    18    60    52    47    63    66    69    208   119
OT V       103   22    54    53    50    38    40    49    132   98

(The OT V completions include both OT V and New OT V Audited NOTs.)

Note that AOLA was downstat for years on OT V completions and has only 
recently recovered.

OT Eligibility is often redone by Scientologists who pause on their way 
through the upper levels. One individual was listed as doing OT 
Eligibility five times (far enough apart in time that they appear to be 
redoing the service rather than duplicate entries).

                 1994  1995  1996  1997  1998  1999  2000  2001  2002  
2003

OT ELIGIBILITY    51    13    92    89    103   117   69    143   164   
105


AOLA'S CLEAR AND SUNSHINE RUNDOWN STATS ARE NOT UP

Clear and Sunshine Rundown completions may not be as good of an indicator 
for an Advanced Org like AOLA, since Clear can be done at many local orgs. 
However, it could indicate that AOLA is not serving as many newer members 
as in the past, but instead is primarily serving long-time members.

               1994  1995  1996  1997  1998  1999  2000  2001  2002  2003

CLEAR            18    4     42    31    34    55    44    35    43    26
SUNSHINE RD      16    4     36    31    27    56    43    31    42    26

If AOLA can keep up the trend for 2003, they may manage to beat the 
all-time (AOLA) record number of Clear attests from 1999.


DISCONTINUED SERVICES

AOLA has not listed any completions for the following service from 
2000-present, although completions were listed in the 1990s:

Academy Levels 0-IV
ARC Straightwire
Class IV, V, VI, VII, or VIII courses or internships (except 2 Class VIII 
Course completions in 2003)
Clear Certainty Rundown
False Purpose Rundown
Grades 0-IV (except 1 each Grade I and IV in 2000)
Hubbard Qualified Scientologist course
Keeping Scientology Working course
Method One Co-Audit Course
Objectives Auditing
OEC
Pro Metering Course
Pro TRs course or Pro Upper Indoc TR Course
PTS/SP Rundown or Detection Course
Purification Rundown
Student Hat Course
Study Certainty Course
Success through Communication Course


FEWER THAN 3000 INDIVIDUALS

My database of Advance completions contains 9101 entries. (Each entry is 
one individual completing one service in one issue of Advance.)

The simplest name search (exact matches) shows that these 9101 entries 
were attributed to 3194 individuals - there are fewer than 3200 individual 
names in the database.

However, many of these are slight variations on the same name: Al Parades 
and Al Paredes, or Alex Kreis and Alex Kries. A simple algorithm to remove 
probable duplicates (matching the first and last letters of the first and 
last names: AlPs for Al Parades) finds only 2584 unique names. However, 
that algorithm sometimes misidentifies pairs as duplicates when they're 
not. (Were there someone named Amil Peres, it would erroneously match Al 
Parades.) My best guess - without personally inspecting each pair - is 
that the total number of individuals is approximately 2800. I am therefore 
confident in my conservative estimate that there are fewer than 3000 
individuals in the list.

In addition, there are 451 exact duplicate entries (same name with the 
exact same spelling), or 225 extraneous entries; using the probable 
duplicate algorithm and actually checking each duplicate found raises the 
number to 515 actual duplicate entries, for 252 extraneous entries (some 
are actually triplicates). Some of these duplicates are retreads, and some 
are truly duplicates. As I refine my database, I will probably revise the 
data to exclude the duplicates. For now, the data is slightly inflated.



So, there you have it. I'm sure sharper eyes and more knowledgeable minds 
than mine will find lots of interesting observations.

I think it's worth reviewing the EXCELLENT thread at 

http://groups.google.com/groups?dq=&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&threadm=
b556547b650bcd0529a238ae0fcd9589%40anonymous.poster&rnum=1&prev=
/groups%3Fq%3Dg:thl1166349425d%26dq%3D%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26ie%3DUTF-8%26oe%3DUTF-8%26
selm%3Db556547b650bcd0529a238ae0fcd9589%2540anonymous.poster

as well as other commentary on Scientology stat trends. As Warrior has 
pointed out in a different thread, just because completion stats appear to 
be up, it doesn't mean overall stats are up. How's the GI? How's the 
Bodies in the Shop? How's the New Starts? Only a few Scientology 
executives know the answers to those questions.


I'd like to thank Warrior for all his invaluable thoughts about 
completions stats and trends in general, and Cerridwen, Lulu Belle, 
ladayla, and Deomorto for their excellent and thought-provoking 
contributions to the earlier discussion of these stats in August 2002 (URL 
above).

I also extend huge thanks to Cerridwen, who has contributed so much data 
to the database, and all those kind souls who have made data from 
magazines available to me. You know who you are (even if I don't!).


All comments, suggestions, corrections, and whatnot gratefully received.

Especially, of course, the whatnot.


Respectfully submitted,


Kristi
ARSCC(wdne) Stats Wrangler (fully hatted)


--
Kristi Wachter
the activist formerly known as "Jour" (before $cientology outed me)

If I am not who you say I am, then you are not who you think you are.
  - James Baldwin

I think $cientology is hurting people and breaking the law, and I
want them to stop it. See http://www.scientology-lies.com for more.

   KSW: http://www.truthaboutscientology.com/alteringtech.htm


Newsgroups: alt.religion.scientology
Subject: Re: Advance! analysis: AOLA stats are up. Pretty much. Sort of.
Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2003 23:40:43 -0600
Message-ID: [vdjphv42t1kems0q0uok8b7tcgc6k4dihd@4ax.com]

In [3f1cc4f5@news2.lightlink.com], Kristi Wachter [humanrights@racerrecords.com]
wrote:

 ... snip ... 
>FEWER THAN 3000 INDIVIDUALS
>
>My database of Advance completions contains 9101 entries. (Each entry is 
>one individual completing one service in one issue of Advance.)
>
>The simplest name search (exact matches) shows that these 9101 entries 
>were attributed to 3194 individuals - there are fewer than 3200 individual 
>names in the database.
>
>However, many of these are slight variations on the same name: Al Parades 
>and Al Paredes, or Alex Kreis and Alex Kries. A simple algorithm to remove 
>probable duplicates (matching the first and last letters of the first and 
>last names: AlPs for Al Parades) finds only 2584 unique names. However, 
>that algorithm sometimes misidentifies pairs as duplicates when they're 
>not. (Were there someone named Amil Peres, it would erroneously match Al 
>Parades.) My best guess - without personally inspecting each pair - is 
>that the total number of individuals is approximately 2800. I am therefore 
>confident in my conservative estimate that there are fewer than 3000 
>individuals in the list.

That's an interesting problem.   You might also try soundex matching, or
matching after vowel elimination.   Data scrubbing's a fascinating thing.


From: Warrior [warrior@xenu.ca]
Newsgroups: alt.religion.scientology
Subject: Re: Advance! analysis: AOLA stats are up. Pretty much. Sort of.
Date: 22 Jul 2003 02:34:09 -0700
Message-ID: [bfj0eh02rut@drn.newsguy.com]

In article [3f1cc4f5@news2.lightlink.com], Kristi Wachter says...
>

(Great post; snip all but a few things.)

>
>I'm missing issue 141, so we have no completions lists from that one 
>yet. 

I have this issue, so I'll post the names and services completed.

>I'll be happy to include it when I get it; if anyone can send me the 
>magazine or the data, I'd be very grateful. Based on the stats from 
>issues 135-145, I suspect it lists 100-150 completions, 

I count 143 completions.

>and would probably not affect any of the following conclusions greatly. 
>Of course, if I'm wrong, I'll be happy to update the analysis when I get 
>the data.
>
>With the exception of issue 141, I have posted completions lists from 
>every issue of Advance! that had them.
>
>The raw data is available here:
>
>http://www.truthaboutscientology.com/stats/advance/

Thanks very much for this!

(big snip)

>As Warrior has pointed out in a different thread, just because 
>completion stats appear to be up, it doesn't mean overall stats 
>are up. How's the GI? How's the Bodies in the Shop? How's the 
>New Starts? Only a few Scientology executives know the answers 
>to those questions.

It appears to me there has been a lot of the same people taking
multiple services -- what the cult calls the "re-sign line".  And I
would bet that a very large percentage of completions are by
people who have used advance payments on account, rather than
paying at the time of taking their services.  I notice quite a few
old timers having to do services in accordance with the "golden
age of tech".

>I'd like to thank Warrior for all his invaluable thoughts about 
>completions stats and trends in general, and Cerridwen, Lulu Belle, 
>ladayla, and Deomorto for their excellent and thought-provoking 
>contributions to the earlier discussion of these stats in August 
>2002 (URL above).

It's always my pleasure to answer your questions, Kristi.  :)

>I also extend huge thanks to Cerridwen, who has contributed so much 
>data to the database, and all those kind souls who have made data from 
>magazines available to me. You know who you are (even if I don't!).
>
>
>All comments, suggestions, corrections, and whatnot gratefully received.
>
>Especially, of course, the whatnot.
>
>
>Respectfully submitted,
>
>
>Kristi
>ARSCC(wdne) Stats Wrangler (fully hatted)

Warrior - Sunshine disinfects
   http://warrior.xenu.ca
"An SP is as valuable as he can help others."



Message-ID: [3F1D4749.B722695B@aol.com]
Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2003 10:16:41 -0400
From: Ed [metasyn@aol.com]
Newsgroups: alt.religion.scientology
Subject: Re: Advance! analysis: AOLA stats are up. Pretty much. Sort of.


Kristi Wachter wrote:
> 
> Okay, I know some folks here are inclined to shoot the messenger, so hang
> on a sec while I don my bulletproof vest -
> 
> Right then. Onward.
> 
> Here's some commentary on completions stats from Advance! magazine.
> 
        {snip awesome and amazing piece of work]

       One possible explanation for AOLA being upstat is that their
increase comes at the expense of Flag and/or Freewinds. I think there
is a basic huge difference between the locations of LA and Clearwater
that drives this. LA has a large and diverse old community of Scns and
above all, is a huge and diverse city and not a bad place to live. CW
on the other hand is a place where there is a lot less real world
life. But I bet the big difference is that Flag is getting more
outrageously oppressive and a lopt of people are quietly voting with
their feet, so to speak.

Only question is: if one has ever taken AO services at Flag are they
forbidden from going to another AO?

Ed


Newsgroups: alt.religion.scientology
Subject: Re: Advance! analysis: AOLA stats are up. Pretty much. Sort of.
From: Kristi Wachter [humanrights@racerrecords.com]
Message-ID: [3f1d65ff$1@news2.lightlink.com]
Date: 22 Jul 2003 12:27:43 -0400

Ed [metasyn@aol.com] writes:



>Kristi Wachter wrote:
>> 
>        {snip awesome and amazing piece of work]

[blush]

>       One possible explanation for AOLA being upstat is that their
>increase comes at the expense of Flag and/or Freewinds. 

I think this could be very true. I understand it's considerably cheaper to 
do stuff at AOLA than at Flag.

>I think there
>is a basic huge difference between the locations of LA and Clearwater
>that drives this. LA has a large and diverse old community of Scns and
>above all, is a huge and diverse city and not a bad place to live. CW
>on the other hand is a place where there is a lot less real world
>life. But I bet the big difference is that Flag is getting more
>outrageously oppressive and a lopt of people are quietly voting with
>their feet, so to speak.

>Only question is: if one has ever taken AO services at Flag are they
>forbidden from going to another AO?

Good question.

I don't think so. Cass Darmody, for example, has done most OT stuff at 
AOLA, but attested to OT III at Flag - then went on to OT IV and V at 
AOLA. I can find a few others who did at least one OT level at Flag and 
then did one or more later at AOLA. Bodhi Elfman's another example. It 
seems much more common to go the other way - AOLA, then Flag - but it does 
happen that folks do AO services at Flag and then do others at AOLA.

I'm curious now what the stats look like at other AOs in other countries. 
Anybody with a good collection of Advance mags from elsewhere, please feel 
free to send me the lists for analysis!



Kristi

--
Kristi Wachter
the activist formerly known as "Jour" (before $cientology outed me)

If I am not who you say I am, then you are not who you think you are.
  - James Baldwin

I think $cientology is hurting people and breaking the law, and I
want them to stop it. See http://www.scientology-lies.com for more.

   KSW: http://www.truthaboutscientology.com/alteringtech.htm


From: exesso96@yahoo.com (Lulu Belle)
Newsgroups: alt.religion.scientology
Subject: Re: Advance! analysis: AOLA stats are up. Pretty much. Sort of.
Date: 22 Jul 2003 17:53:53 -0700
Organization: http://groups.google.com/
Message-ID: [7db3d0ad.0307221653.303a70d3@posting.google.com]

Kristi,

Great work. There's a job for you as an Evaluator at Int Exec Strata. 

There's a tremendous amount to respond to in this post, so I'll just
bring up one small piece of data here.

I think I may have somewhat of a general idea of some of what has
occurred here regarding the affluence in OT completions:

The Golden Age of Tech stuff was released in 1996. About a year before
that, a whole lot of staff were pulled out of the orgs (including
AOLA) and sent to Flag to train to be auditors, etc.

Without going into a lot of gory details, the amount of staff that
were ripped for Flag training pretty much devastated the orgs. In
addition to this, management didn't want anyone but GAT auditors
auditing public in the SO orgs.

The problem was, the SO orgs didn't have any GAT auditors. It's
possible that AO had maybe a couple of tech terminals who were able to
deliver this stuff, but not enough to really service any significant
amount of public. The only place that had them was Flag. As a result,
all the public who were going onto their OT levels were more or less
forced to do them at Flag.

When the AO re-Saint Hill Size thing occurred after the renos were
finished a couple of years ago, I'm sure there was a lot of pressure
from management to get these people in training comp'd and back to
AOLA. (As a note, higher orgs like Flag have been known to hang on to
interning auditors forever, as they provide a source of free delivery
for the org.) As a result, I'm sure a lot of newly trained GAT
auditors came back from Flag to AO, which allowed increased delivery
to occur.

Another issue: The release of the Golden Age of Tech meant that a lot,
if not all, public had to do their lower level services all over
again. As a result, it probably took a few years before there were
public you could deliver the OT Levels *to*.

One more thing: It's obvious that Scientology has been hurting
financially. It has always been seen as a "why" when the orgs aren't
doing well, and Scientology isn't making money, that there are "stops"
or "arbitraries" being put on people's progress, or they are being
"programmed off the Bridge." It's when people get on the upper Bridge
that they spend the big bucks, so if they aren't being gotten up
through OT, Scientology isn't making money.

What this means in layman's terms is that public are being told they
can't do their OT levels for various reasons. They are being put on
long eligibility programs, they are being made to do other services
first, etc. When management gets into a very careful and paranoid mode
this happens. It often happens after a few flaps of people doing their
OT Levels and asking for refunds, people doing an OT Level and going
Type III, people doing their OT Levels and leaving Scientology and
posting on the internet, etc. There may have been some of this stuff
that occurred a few years back. Management, as a result, got super
careful, a lot of public weren't being let on, and everything stalled.
Now, Scientology isn't making money, management is panicing, and they
are reversing their tune.

There's a pendulum that swings back and forth on this subject in
Scientology. Not to get too technical here, but there was a bulletin
Martin Ottomann posted a couple of days ago saying basically that not
all Clears had to do Grades. This is definitely a different tune than
management was singing a few years back. It's an indicator that the
pendulum has swung into a "get people onto the OT Levels no matter
what" mode.




Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2003 22:14:37 -0400
Subject: Re: Advance! analysis: AOLA stats are up. Pretty much. Sort of.
From: jommycross@[127.1] (Jommy Cross)
Newsgroups: alt.religion.scientology
Message-ID: [aa6d070d7a08ecfa8988ce78288ce845@rebleep]

On 22 Jul 2003 01:00:37 -0400, Kristi Wachter
[humanrights@racerrecords.com] wrote in msg [3f1cc4f5@news2.lightlink.com]:

>Okay, I know some folks here are inclined to shoot the messenger, so hang 
>on a sec while I don my bulletproof vest -

Ready... aim... THANKS KRISTI 

Ever yours in fandom,
Jommy Cross

---------------------------------------------------
This message brought to you by Radio Free Albemuth:
before you hallucinate
--------------------------------------------------



From: Zinj [zinjifar@yahoo.com]
Newsgroups: alt.religion.scientology
Subject: Re: Advance! analysis: AOLA stats are up. Pretty much. Sort of.
Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2003 19:27:18 -0700
Message-ID: [MPG.198792636a17a809989892@news2.lightlink.com]

In article [aa6d070d7a08ecfa8988ce78288ce845@rebleep], 
jommycross@[127.1] says...
> On 22 Jul 2003 01:00:37 -0400, Kristi Wachter
> [humanrights@racerrecords.com] wrote in msg [3f1cc4f5@news2.lightlink.com]:
> 
> >Okay, I know some folks here are inclined to shoot the messenger, so hang 
> >on a sec while I don my bulletproof vest -
> 
> Ready... aim... THANKS KRISTI 
> 
> Ever yours in fandom,
> Jommy Cross

Shooting messengers is fun, and less problematical than shooting 
stats... so, I'm glad you're armored :)

It does seem that the GAT crew has recognized the value of 'cash 
flow', and speeded up the process.

What would be *most* interesting would be an 'age/time served' 
anyalysis, since, my impression is that there is very little 
'new' growth, but primarilly long termers/their children.

If there were any way to break out the actual 'new' suckers, 
it'd be invaluable, although, probably beyond the database 
*yet*.

Zinj
-- 
You can't get your parking validated if you don't have a car


From: exesso96@yahoo.com (Lulu Belle)
Newsgroups: alt.religion.scientology
Subject: Re: Advance! analysis: AOLA stats are up. Pretty much. Sort of.
Date: 26 Jul 2003 06:14:43 -0700
Message-ID: [7db3d0ad.0307260514.5bd43a6c@posting.google.com]

Kristi Wachter [humanrights@racerrecords.com] 
wrote in message news:[3f1cc4f5@news2.lightlink.com]...

> Okay, I know some folks here are inclined to shoot the messenger, so hang 
> on a sec while I don my bulletproof vest -
> 
> Right then. Onward.
> 
> Here's some commentary on completions stats from Advance! magazine.

(snip)


> AOLA has not listed any completions for the following service from 
> 2000-present, although completions were listed in the 1990s:
> 
> Academy Levels 0-IV
> ARC Straightwire
> Class IV, V, VI, VII, or VIII courses or internships (except 2 Class VIII 
> Course completions in 2003)
> Clear Certainty Rundown
> False Purpose Rundown
> Grades 0-IV (except 1 each Grade I and IV in 2000)
> Hubbard Qualified Scientologist course
> Keeping Scientology Working course
> Method One Co-Audit Course
> Objectives Auditing
> OEC
> Pro Metering Course
> Pro TRs course or Pro Upper Indoc TR Course
> PTS/SP Rundown or Detection Course
> Purification Rundown
> Student Hat Course
> Study Certainty Course
> Success through Communication Course



They're not allowed to deliver them any more, because this is
considered "competing" with ASHO, LA Org and CC Int. If you do a
newsgroup search in Google for "PAC Unscramble" I worte up a detailed
explanation of this at one time.


From: basic2basic@yahoo.com (basicbasic)
Newsgroups: alt.religion.scientology
Subject: Re: Advance! analysis: AOLA stats are up. Pretty much. Sort of.
Date: 26 Jul 2003 12:38:23 -0700
Message-ID: [7acb5afd.0307261138.731f759e@posting.google.com]

exesso96@yahoo.com (Lulu Belle) wrote in message 
[7db3d0ad.0307221653.303a70d3@posting.google.com]...
> Kristi,
> 
> Great work. There's a job for you as an Evaluator at Int Exec Strata. 

  You too. :)

 When management gets into a very careful and paranoid mode
> this happens. It often happens after a few flaps of people doing their
> OT Levels and asking for refunds, people doing an OT Level and going
> Type III, people doing their OT Levels and leaving Scientology and
> posting on the internet, etc. 

  I'm interested in  stats on these areas. Your best 
guess may  be all that I can get.

  Those going type 3, what percentage is from upper levels? 
I know one friend did this on PTS/SP study. 

  What percentage of active parishioners? Hows that compare 
to average man in street?

  What percentage leave after OT levels and don't post?

   bb

.,


From: Warrior [warrior@xenu.ca]
Newsgroups: alt.religion.scientology
Subject: Re: Advance! analysis: AOLA stats are up. Pretty much. Sort of.
Date: 26 Jul 2003 19:42:59 -0700
Message-ID: [bfve7j0n6p@drn.newsguy.com]

In article [7db3d0ad.0307260514.5bd43a6c@posting.google.com], 
Lulu Belle [exesso96@yahoo.com] says...
>
>They're not allowed to deliver them any more, because this is
>considered "competing" with ASHO, LA Org and CC Int. If you do a
>newsgroup search in Google for "PAC Unscramble" I worte up a detailed
>explanation of this at one time.

Here it is.

Warrior - Sunshine disinfects
   http://warrior.xenu.ca
=====================

~From: Lulu Belle (exesso96@yahoo.com)
~Subject: Re: AOLA stats July 2002
~Newsgroups: alt.religion.scientology
~Date: 2002-08-22 18:41:44 PST

"Cerridwen" [anmetet@freedom.gmsociety.org] wrote in message news:

(snip)

> > > OT Preparations 20 12 0 59
> >
> > and this is very interesting - 0 OT Preps for a quarter?
> 
> 
> Yes, I went back to that Issue and re confirmed it.  Very
> strange.
> 
> 
>  What that
> > says is that they had no auditors for this at all - what I would
> > suspect from this is that  a) They had some severe refund problems 3
> > quarters ago - I do know they have had problems with a couple of type
> > 3s just prior to that b) during the period of no OT preps completions
> > the auditors and C/Ses were getting firmly beaten around the head and
> > retreaded - possibly a coupla RPFings? c) They have had a delivery
> > mission in the org for the last quarter once the auditors were gotten
> > back into delivery.
> 
> Yes OR another possibility is that somehow they allowed most of the OT
> preps to be done at ASHO.  I know that sounds weird but I noticed in 
> recent Promo that they are showing pictures of the AOLA/ASHO tech 
> delivery team. Of course I got a bazillion copies of that promo but now 
> I can't find a single piece of it.
> 
> Kind of weird to be combining orgs like that.  I wonder if they are 
> just so short of auditors that AOLA had to use ASHO for OT Preps.




No.

It's the PAC Unscramble Eval.

There's an LRH Policy called "Prices, Upper Orgs." Per this policy,
any higher org can offer any service a lower org can offer, providing
they charge more for it. I believe the minimum amount additional they
have to charge over the lower org's rates is 10%.

PAC was originally designed, or conceptualized, to be a place where a
public person would move from one org to the other as he progressed up
the Bridge. He'd start at LA Day, move into ASHO, then into AOLA.

In the old days, before Dianetic Clear, the org progression thing
pretty much existed. The person would do his academy levels and lower
grades at a Class IV org (LA Org). The person had to finish the
Briefing Course (ASHO) before he could do Power (at AOLA), then the
Clearing Course (at AOLA), then Solo and his OT Levels.

Dianetic Clear pretty much changed all that. A person could go clear
without having any training at all. Without going through all of the
details of the history, Solo became something that was offered at all
three orgs. The DCSI (later becoming the CCRD) was offered at all
three orgs. OT Preps and Elig were available at both ASHO and AO. You
didn't have to do the BC to do the Clearing Course, so you didn't have
to go to ASHO at all if you had the bucks to do your Preps at AO. You
could do your whole bridge at AO, from the Purif through OT V, if you
wanted to.

The original "vision" of the PAC Bridge became three entities (five,
if you consider the Day and Foundation orgs of LA Org and ASHO as
separate orgs) which operated totally independently and competed with
each other for the same public for the same services.

My time track and history on this may not be too accurate, but I
believe the basic information is correct.

There was an LRH eval that came out (late seventies? I'm not sure
when) where the purpose was to "unscramble" the PAC bridge by forcing
orgs to "concentrate on their specialized services."

One of the biggest issues that existed was the competition of AOLA and
ASHO regarding OT Preps delivery.

ASHO is supposed to be, in theory, the "official" OT Preps org. In
reality, though, it has generally been a service that most people do
at AOLA.

Several reasons: AOLA has more money and has generally had more and
better auditors, both SO and non-SO. Preps is often part of an "OT
Package" at AO. This means that if you buy your OT Levels, you could
get your preps at a discount. (Theoretically, you could still do them
at ASHO, but most people didn't.) Third, there was an idea that was
promoted, overtly or covertly by the AO, that if you did your preps
there they would be shorter than they would be at ASHO, because AO had
more of a vested interest in moving you onto your OT Levels than ASHO
did. (It would be more in ASHO's interest to keep you forever, since
by completing you, they'd lose you.)

The subject of preps delivery was a very hot subject in PAC.
Regardless of the theory that an org "booms through training,"
factually, the vast majority of org income comes from HGC delivery. OT
Preps is/was probably the biggest moneymaker in both AO and ASHO. Not
to mention the other org stats that it has a huge effect on like:
Value of Services Delivered, Well Done Auditing Hours, Paid
Completions. It's factually, one of the biggest, if not the biggest,
stat maker in an SO Org.

There have been forcible handlings that have occurred over the years
to eliminate the competition between AO and ASHO on this subject. The
"PAC Unscramble" thing had a lot of attention of Int managment in
recent years.

Whatever the AO/ASHO Prep thing that Cerri mentioned was that she got
in the promo piece, and the weird preps stats from AO are, I'm sure
it's a result of one of these PAC "handlings" to "unscramble the PAC
Bridge."



From: Warrior [warrior@xenu.ca]
Newsgroups: alt.religion.scientology
Subject: Advance! issue 141 (circa April 1999) completions
Date: 22 Jul 2003 07:53:17 -0700
Message-ID: [bfjj4t01ieb@drn.newsguy.com]

Advance! issue 141 (circa April 1999) completions

(Note that Tami Wohlberg's name is listed twice as
having completed OT Eligibility.  So this makes 142
actual completions, and not 143 as I stated in my 
earlier post in response to Kristi, as I had not at 
that time realized her name was listed twice.)

RELEASES AND GRADUATES

Scientology Drug Rundown  (5)
James Ayres
Patty Pritchett
Dan Brown
Lisa Lashaway
Maria Lotter

PTS Rundown  (1)
Barbara Howell

Grade 3 Expanded  (2)
Mary Jo Ripp
Leah Schmiedeke

Grade 5  (1)
Anna Curtis

Grade 5A  (5)
Joe Arnett
Nabila Khashoggi
Paul Maselli
Henry Robinett
Anna Curtis

R6EW  (1)
Joe Arnett

The State of Clear  (7)
Iraida Reina
Sharon Fry
Connie Morgan
Mike Carberry
Mo Pisciottano
Jessica Gundlefinger
John Gaskin

Sunshine Rundown  (7)
Iraida Reina
Sharon Fry
Connie Morgan
Mike Carberry
Mo Pisciottano
Jessica Gundlefinger
John Gaskin

New Hubbard Solo Auditor Course Part I  (13)
Jessica Paolo
Beth McKinley
Juan Colomer
Sandra Laughlin
Lisa Lashaway
Stacy Ruiz
Charlene Williams
Walter Fatoric
Diane Boyers
Marya Burke
Marti Fackler
Lynne Hansen
Keth Frost

Solo Auditor Certainty Course  (4)
Harold Belsheim
Dawn Kaehn-Stenico
Bob Serra
Janet Valdez

OT Preparations  (7)
Joe Arnett
Stacy Ruiz
Juan Colomer
Lyle Stubblefield
Aesha Jayasinghe
Keith Frost
Anna Curtis

Solo Auditor Course Part II  (9)
Kate Scott-Douglas
Joe Arnett
Russ Kobrin
Joan Shrum-Brown
Stacy Ruiz
Misha Segal
Bonnie Johnson
Juan Colomer
Jessica Paolo

OT Eligibility  (16, as Tami Wohlberg is listed twice)
Lissa Walker
Lisa London
Tami Wohlberg
Joe Arnett
Dan Sales 
David Dempster
Jack Spears
Kate Scott-Douglas
Tami Wohlberg (yes, she's listed twice)
Art Neumann
Debbie Edwards
Mike Rubio
Stacy Ruiz
Scott Reilly
Andy Staffer
Aris Morfopoulos
Glen Zimmer

New OT I  (14)
Ali Shaw
Lori Pettyjohn
Virginia Volpe
Anthony Courtemanche
Marti Wiggins
Beth Kelly
Teresita Reina
Fred Pierson
Tomi Bowling
Tony Bowling
Cory Trammell
Hana Zetzer
Stacy Ruiz
Elaine Martinez

OT II  (23)
Salila Travers
Dave Short
Richard Farr
Patty Hallam
Bob Kretschmer
Todd Gilbert
Gail Derosia
Will Wiatt
Yolanda Szaniszlo
Yvon Arsenault
Edit Eskinazi
Denny Fenn
Grace Langevoort
Steve Spacher
Jim Reding
Anthony Courtemanche
Ray Tjepkes
Marti Wiggins
Lee Terbush
Teresita Reina
George Gaut
Valerie Heifler
Maria Bovolini

OT III  (5)
Salila Travers
Becky Bertolucci
Ilona Bischoff
John Joseph
Babette Reynolds

New OT IV  (6)
Lori Prescott
Stefano Orlandi
Dawn Halasz
Laura Springer
Ilona Bischoff
Becky Bertolucci

New OT V  (7)
Toni Colson
Terry Williams
Janet Schilling
Connie Kaiser
Anne Kraft
Chris Crinklaw
Mike Finch

Hubbard Ket to Life  (1)
Nicci Lotz

Hubbard Life Orientation Course  (2)
Allison Boles
Phil Kolpek

OT Doctorate Course  (3)
Stefano Orlandi
Patty Schwartz
Mary Taufer

Exteriorization and the Phenomena of Space Course  (3)
Peeter Alvet
Nancy Turner-Alvet
Steven David Horwich

===

Warrior - Sunshine disinfects
   http://warrior.xenu.ca


This page was last updated on September 15, 2003 by Kristi Wachter.